Just for Fun: Estimating Xbox One Pre-Orders

In this post you will see why my career as a financial analyst never took off (or got within 100 miles of the launch pad). 

I decided that I would try to estimate the number of Xbox One pre-orders based off of the Xbox 360 pre-orders (or the best I could find http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360_launch).  Are you ready, here goes (using point estimates for some reason)....

Xbox 360 pre-orders (Through Japan on December 5, 2005)
* 720, 235 (US, Canada, Europe, Japan), more like sales in the first months.

Estimate (ok Guess on Xbox One pre-orders)
* 1,445,000 - ok probably not that many
(but if it was 2 to 1 over Xbox 360, NPD for November 2005 was 326,000 Xbox 360s)

My Real "Worldwide" Estimate (probably a little high):
* US: 697,242
* CA: 55,337
* EU (UK,etc): 343,088

So, the total amount I see (and i'm probably wrong, or within 20%)...
1,106,734

Do I get partial credit if I get within 50,000 within any region?  Ok, so how did I arrive at this number.  Well, I used a lot of really strange assumptions (and some data from the Xbox 360 launch).  of course they couldn't launch in a comparative manner to the 360 (markets and the number of them).  So I may be way off in some of the markets.  It seems like Mexico, Brazil, Australia/NZ got pushed up this time.  There are less European markets at launch this time. 
* I took the approximate launch percentages for certain regions at the Xbox 360 launch and used those as a baseline.  The regions were US, Canada, Europe and Japan. 
* Then I oddly adjusted those numbers to get an estimate of total pre-orders and added them up (keeping in mind the MSFT claim of 2:1 pre-order ratio - that is a claim that had a big impact on my numbers). I only used 2:1 ratio for the US and Canada (I used 1.25 for Europe and .25 for Japan)
* Then I took that number and multiplied it by seemingly randomly selected percentages that sound remotely in the realm of possibility based off of potential percentages of pre-order numbers (I don't know the real numbers, but these will do for now, until i'm proven horribly, horribly wrong).
- US: 63%
- Canada: 5%
- Europe: 31%
- Japan: 1%
* Until I remembered that Japan wasn't an initial launch area, so I just subtracted out that number). Then I remembered that Australia/NZ were added so, I just used the numbers I would have used for Japan.

"Fun Fact": The Xbox (the first One) sold an estimated 550,000 units in its first NPD reporting
period.  I expect the Xbox One to One up this by at least 100,000 units.

Lifetime, I expect the Xbox One to move about 75%-80% of the Xbox 360.  I guess that is a conservative estimate (especially since the 360 still has at least a couple of years of adequate sales left).  In other words, in my version of reality it should move 65-70 million consoles in it life (a few million higher than 75-80%).