i have long wondered how to better estimate Game Room sales. Unfortunately, there is no easy answer (and for me no answer correct enough). i am not really satisfied with calling 87.5% of leaderboard entries sales (it is probably higher).
The real problem here is that Game Room uses a plateau leaderboard system that overlooks a potentially large amount of sales - so i am going to estimate how high the leaderboard should be. That is the real challenge.
So how are some of my early estimates progressing? Well maybe i should put up a link.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmQylLb0REoBdHp2ZVlUUjVWWEVJUVV6TWtMcEFSZlE&hl=en
In this spreadsheet (so far) i divided the current leaderboard level by the number of weeks the game has been up on Game Room. To estimate the average weekly leaderboard growth. Some results look better to me than others. However, there is the slight problem that this uses a straight-line method where every weekly total is the same - that is not too realistic. There are 27 out of 108 titles that are over-estimated using this method.
Does anyone have any hints on how to estimate current ranked game sales by leaderboard numbers (where the numbers have to fall in specific ranges)? i have one or two ideas that i may try.
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