Saturday, April 2, 2011

My Game Room 2.01 - If i Were Rich

So, i have posted a few things about Game Room, but i decided to look at what i would want if i could afford to subsidize and relaunch Game Room (i would have made the offer if i had sufficient money - guaranteed 333,333/yr unit sales).  What would i do similar, what would i do different?  i am not sure what to do about achievements.  i can dream...

1) The Interface:  What i would prefer would be a more menu driven experience.  My views on this changed a little after playing Pinball FX2.  Of course the same interface would be a little more problematic on Game Room (since it has more than 13 games) - i guess you could go to a multi-page setup with filtering.  The personal arcade interface was a cool concept for the first one, but it may be more trouble than it is worth.  Ultimately, a choice between the two would be preferable.  

2) Compatibility:  the ability to play Game Room games is essential

3) Universal Challenges:  this is one of the concepts i picked up from Pinball FX2 (though they are rarely done).  There should be a monthly (at least) universal challenge for a game.  This would partially accomplish two things: a stronger sense of community and a spotlight for the game in the challenge.  Maybe someone might see the challenge and buy a game they were on the fence for.  When i say a universal challenge - it would essentially be setting up a timed leaderboard for a specific game, there would be no prizes (outside of a sense of pride for the winner).

4) Communication: if i ran Game Room, i would want to have a blog and a Facebook presence (not Twitter). The Facebook site would be more for announcing packs/weekly releases.  The blog would have weekly releases, future content teasers, but also random information like: Weekly Top 10 Sales and periodic challenge winners.  It might also occasionally have retro themed posts.

5) Price: this is one thing i would change.  i know that the publishers have to be paid, but i would like to see prices reduced to 200 points ($2.50 instead of $3, $2.75 max).  If a Game had 30,000 leaderboard entries (i don't think any do), the revenue difference would be about $15,000.  The big question here is how price sensitive that Game Room users are (and potential users).  So, the difference would be mitigated to a certain extent (if a lower price would result in 6,000 more sales, it would break even with the 240 price point in that scenario).  Most likely, a reduced price would have greater impact in lower leaderboard games.

6) Dealing with Publishers: i am not exactly sure how MSFT deals with publishers in Game Room.  What i would try to do is give the publishers a guaranteed minimum unit sales number in the contract (after years 2 or so on the service).  This would probably vary depending on what games were licensed.  For some lesser games, it might be worth it to just buy the rights/IP from the publisher in a package deal.

7) Sub-Company: If i had the money i would set up a separate company to acquire rights to old games and/or act as a sub-licensor so smaller companies could get their games on Game Room.  If publishers like Taito, Midway, Sega, etc. won't license certain games, it might be worth it to just purchase some of the b-level (or lower) IPs using Game Room sales as a sweetener/funding method.

8) Dynamic Leaderboards: increase accuracy (to 1,000s if over 10K, 100s if over 1K).  Also take away loading of gamerpics by a person's score.

9) Leveling: maybe add a platinum medal (6 or 7 points).  Other than that, remove level cap

10) Tokens, Visiting Friend's Arcade, Showcase Arcade: exclude all of these "features".

11) Pay for Play: reduce cost for pay for play to 20 points ($.25), allow pay for play to see leaderboard and play for score (so a person could do pay for play as a challenge).  Disable medals from pay for play sessions.

12) Replays: reduce replays to only the top 5 leaderboard positions.  Or, i guess, you could just get rid of them entirely.

13) Releases:  i would prefer games being released outside of game packs for individual release (there might actually be a financial reason for game packs though).  i would target 15-20 games a month (12 minimum) - that works out to 180-240 games a year (144 minimum).  Games would all release on the last day of the month.

Dview: Costume Quest (XBLA)

The Bottom Line:
Costume Quest is a semi-old school kid friendly RPG.  The battles are turn-based (with a one button activator after attack is selected, there is an activation button for defense too).  i wish this would have been 5x-7x the length and a retail game.  Basically, you collect costumes (or pieces of them) and then go into battle as that character: robot, knight, pumpkin, etc.  The characters have different special abilities that you can use (at about the 3 turn mark in a battle).  The main story happens around Halloween (my favorite holiday) and you go around to houses and trick or treat.  At around 5-7 hours for both of the main game and the DLC, it feels a little short.  i recently got this game on sale (and beat it in a day), if i had to pay the full 1,200 points for this i would have been a little more disappointed.
Grade: B


What to Expect:
* Turn-based battles (there is a level cap for the main game at 10, 14 for the DLC).  Most of the game you will have a party of three.  Battles are with visible characters in the field or at doors you trick or treat at.  Characters can be enhanced a little by acquiring battle stamps
* A fairly colorful game that takes place on Halloween (the DLC is more winter themed), some people say it has charm
* Chests/costume pieces to search for.  Some costumes have field abilities - like light, protection field, etc
* Trick or Treating (in one of the 3 separate areas: the suburbs, the mall and the country)
* Side quests (maybe 20 or so) - these range from things like winning a costume contest, to finding a treat card to fetch quests, even bobbing for apples.
* A fixed camera that you cannot really move.
* A fairly linear game.

Achievements:
The achievements in this game are mostly straightforward, the only one i had to look up was the visitor one from the DLC.  They are for things like collecting (treat cards, battle stamps), using costume, defeating bosses, doing all of the quests, etc.  There are an additional 50 gamerscore points from the DLC (hint, using the Yeti costume in the final fight may be a good idea).

Friday, April 1, 2011

Game Room: Leaderboard Predictions for April 2011

Yet another Game Room related post.  Here is another monthly estimate of games that my (bad) numbers predict will go up by the end of April.

Another month has started - it seems the mood among the Game Room faithful is growing bleaker by the day.  So, what could cause unanticipated leaderboard spikes this month.  Much like i said last month - the Windows Phone 7 version of Game Room could launch.  More games reached the 1,000 mark - so the number of games predicted to increase will likely decrease as the months go on.  Also sales could be decreasing or stabilizing at some much lower rate.

The numbers in parentheses are my current (4/1/11 estimates based off my odd irr method numbers).  if i get around to it, i need to find a way to refine my estimation method (so my accuracy will be better than 50%). So, here are my predictions for leaderboard increases this month...

1) Battlezone to 5,000 (5,007)
2) Beamrider to 600 (619)
3) Circus Atari to 800 (801)
4) Cosmic Commuter to 500 (513)
5) Demons to Diamonds to 900 (1,014)
6) Jungler to 10,000 (11,693)
7) Kaboom to 1,000 (1,074)
8) Millipede 2600 to 8,000 (9,872)
9) Missile Command to 5,000 (5,212)
10) Scramble to 10,000 (11,693)
11) Space Armada to 8,000 (9,872)
12) Submarine Commander to 80 (89)
13) Super Breakout to 10,000 (11,379)
14) Time Pilot to 7,000 (7,107)
15) Tower of Doom to 800 (803)
16) Tutankham to 8,000 (9,872)
17) Vectron to 60 (68)
18) Yar's Revenge to 10,000 (11,693)

Maybe:
1) Jail Break to 5,000 (4,768)
2) Rack 'Em Up to 5,000 (4,946)

Monday, March 28, 2011

Game Room Post (Again) - Features i Could Do Without

Ok, so i did my Game Room at one year post focusing mainly on sales estimates and leaderboards.  In this post i will name some of the features that do not seem well utilized to me.

The Good:
1) Dynamic Leaderboards (wish they were more precise)
2) Classic Mode - This is what i always wanted from the retro XBLA games - infinite lives/credits, can change "machine settings" and rewind.  This is also a nice feature for the Atari 2600 games, as you get access to some of the other "modes" on the cartridge.  Unfortunately, Game Room is about the medals and Classic Mode only counts for Time Spender.
3) The Medal System -  this was one of my favorite ideas (though the implementation maybe should be tweaked, like allowing 2 medal games).   It is nice (though expensive) how the achievements were based off of the medal system (much better than individual achievements).  You would get 5 points for a gold, 3 for a silver and 2 for a bronze.  Leveling would unlock decor and themes (good idea initially).  Unfortunately, there is a level cap at 50 (wish it was infinite levels at every 20 points).  
4) Challenges - this is another feature that separates Game Room from XBLA.  You could challenge your "friends", i think up to 10 at once, to challenges in particular games.  So, in a way, you could do bulk challenges (and several challenges at once).  Even lowly XBL Silver members like me could do these challenges.

The Questionable:
1) Arcade interface - this was actually one of the sales point behind Game Room in the beginning.  However, this may have caused stability problems with the program.  There were not enough rooms or as many themes as i would have liked.  The green and red flags were kind of cool for a while (denoting whether or not you had top score on your friends list).  Unfortunately, you were also limited to 96 spots for games/decor.  i would prefer that they just scratched virtual arcade interface and adopt the rumored Windows Phone 7 version interface.
2)  Leaderboard Replays - originally, they would show replays of the top 20 scores.  This was a cool concept, but is it really necessary.  Watching these replays gives you a pretty good idea of how the game plays out (though not the feel) and some strategy suggestions.  However, 20 replays is overkill (maybe 5 at the most, if any).  Furthermore, these replays would occasionally become messed up
3) Pay for Play - on paper this may sound like a good idea.  In some ways it was a nice concept and fits within the arcade concept.  On the other hand, 6 plays was the price of one game.
4) Tokens - this will tie into point 5... You were given 20 tokens at the start and then got one for friends visiting your arcade.  However, the only thing you could do with tokens was to play demos of games - you couldn't earn medals, trade them in for prizes or anything else
5) Visiting Arcades and Showcase Arcade - i didn't have that many Game Room friends, but i fail to see the point in this one.  You could see what games they had, and play/buy games from them - but that was about it.        The Showcase Arcade was essentially an arcade (not well updated) where you could try out/buy games from.  Much like friends' arcades, it was kind of pointless (especially as you could play demos from the store section, after you downloaded the packs)
6) The Achievements - This may have been Game Room's downfall.  Game Room seemed to get less publicity after initial complaints about the achievements.  Game Room has probably the most expensive 1,000 points of any game (as you essentially have to buy 20 games minimum to get 1,000 - you would actually need to pay somewhat more than that, actually).  i liked the achievements (and how they weren't tied to specific games), but i was going to get a lot of games anyway.

Friday, March 25, 2011

Game Room: What's With My Game Room Stats "Obsession"

So, if you read any of my Game Room posts you might wonder why i do so many posts on sales estimates and the like.  The simple answer is that for some reason Game Room brings out that side in me.  Maybe it is that it is a reminder of a simpler time where possibility still existed.

The long answer goes back to my days in college.  i have a degree in Business Administration (Finance) and Economics (Managerial Economics).   What i really would have liked to do after college to be a corporate financial analyst (working mainly with cost of capital type stuff).  For some reason, things like NPV, WACC, IRR, time value of money, etc. seemed to click for me (seemed easy to understand), however i was working with simplified scenarios and theory mostly - because that is mostly what college is.

When Game Room added leaderboards i took more of an interest in the results and behind the scenes type stuff.  This started with my posts on the official Game Room forum with my post series The Business of Game Room (which i re-posted here).  In that series i was trying to look at Game Room like a business analyst (arguably not my best class in college).  i was trying to figure out how it might operate (using different aspects).  Eventually, that evolved into stat tracking/recording.  i have always been interested in playing around and interpreting stats (though i can't stand hypothesis testing), however, i am more than a little out of practice.  Sometimes partial concepts pop into my head though.

Then i turned it into a sales estimate quest.  What i decided to use were simplistic methods (at least in my mind).  i started by estimating that real sales were 75% of leaderboard data - mostly because i was thinking in terms of multiple accounts on one console and the pay for one play option.  After looking on a sight that estimated XBLA games and seeing that they estimated that something like 90% of leaderboards were sales to individual accounts i changed my assumptions.  i now use a conservative point estimate of 87.5%.  That breaks down to an estimate that 85% of leaderboard entries are unique purchasers and 2.5% added because of the way the leaderboards are set up (essentially that real leaderboard figures are 2.5% higher than the plateau level shown).  i am seriously considering increasing my point estimate to 90%.

Of course i wasn't content to let thing stand at those conclusions, so i added another wrinkle.  That wrinkle was irr.  irr is actually my attempt to estimate what the leaderboard numbers are (putting aside the 2.5% estimate) based off of the average leaderboard position divided by the number of weeks a game has been on the service.  After that i kind of messed up offshoot of NPV and use a multiplier to create weekly estimates, which i then sum.  The first numerical entry in my list of weeks will be the first week's observed leaderboard information.  i messed up the timing on data collection (should have been Tuesdays instead of Thursdays/Fridays), so i can't get a handle off of second week declines and things like that.    

Maybe i will come up with a totally convoluted metric in the future.  i am actually interested in how much i should discount sales in subsequent weeks - but i'm not sure where to start with that (as i don't have the data points i would like).

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Game Room At One Year: Post Spectacular


Overview:
Game Room was released on an ususpecting public on March 24, 2010 on both the Xbox 360 and Games for Windows Live (PC) platforms. Game Room had a tumultuous year with a strong start, then a month delay in the weekly content releases.  Things seemed to stabilize for several game packs until the developer, Krome, ran into some issues and decided to undergo downsizing and restructuring.  After the last two or three packs were hastily released in late December, there has been an air of doubt about Game Room's future.  Game Room is slated to launch for Windows Phone 7 in the immediate future with 5 games, but the launch date has yet to be confirmed. 

i decided to post this a day early, since i have already done my Tuesday leaderboard check (only one game, Dodge 'em had an observable increase this week - the least ever.  New content would be awesome).

Releases:
Game Room releases were accomplished through game packs that had embedded time codes to unlock the next week's content.  The game launched with game pack 001 and 002 on March, 24, 2010 which both contained 15 games (for a total of 30 games).  These games were released on Wednesdays.  In all, 13 game packs were released to date.  There were 188 games released in total (with a mystery game, Sunset Riders in the description but not yet released).  Of these titles, 108 of them were ranked (3 medals) the other 80 games were time spender only games.   

Sales:
Apparently, i am interested in approximating Game Room sales.  i have been taking note of available data since Game Room dynamic leaderboards were instituted in late August.  The quality of the data is somewhat subject as there are periods of incomplete data and misaligned data gathering dates (i am missing a week from when my Xbox 360 S was sent in for repair).  i only have access to the data that the leaderboards provide: ranked games only and a plateau leaderboard system (which "hides" sales). 

The success of Game Room depends on your expectations.  i expected a $2.5-4.5 million dollar budget spread over three years (with much of the expense occurring before launch).  i think (and i'm probably wrong) that Game Room would need to achieve annual sales of between $1-1.5 million dollars to be considered a success.  That number would probably be lower if you factor out the time zero (sunk) cost.

i don't know if i can embed charts here, but here is what i would like to show...  ranked game sales by: publisher, arcade/console, game pack and maybe a bar chart of weekly observable leaderboard increases.  Sorry, this is not exactly formatted how i would like.  Game Room Sales Distribution chart is based off of leaderboard level, the other charts are based off of estimated sales of ranked games only.  i might restate the link to my Office online spreadsheet too, so you can get an idea of individual sales estimates (and maybe a bonus irr method estimates).  




My Google Documents Version: 
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmQylLb0REoBdFJzSnNJeThVMHJocU0tMlNiVHU3dHc&hl=en



Legal-ish:
i am not in any way affiliated with MSFT, Krome or Game Room - other than purchasing all 108 ranked games and playing numerous hours.  i am just doing this for "fun".  All of my estimates should not be taken as actual numbers, they are just my best "educated guesses", use them at your own peril.  Any trademarks, logos, service marks, etc are owned by the respective rights holders.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Lips (Xbox 360): A Retrospective, sort of

In 2008, Lips was announced at E3 with a performance of "Mercy" by singer Duffy.  The game would be released in North America on November 18, 2008 to mixed (yet average) reviews.  In October, 2009 the first of three add-ons, Number One Hits was released (not counting any regional discs).  Number One Hits changed the scoring engine and added avatar support (gestures) along with dynamic leaderboards.  It also added combos to the scoring system and insanely long start-up times.  In 2010, Party Classics was released - though it was difficult to find at retail.  It added cups to the game.  Cups are based off of leaderboard position (i do not currently have any crystal positions, but i am in the top 10 for a couple of DLC songs).   In retrospect, this was probably the first clear sign that the series was in trouble.  After Party Classics was released, there was a third add-on disc, Lips I Love the 80s, but only in Europe.  No new DLC has been released for Lips (in the US) since February 18, 2011.  The Lips Facebook page has not been updated since August 2010 (and their decent external site vanished before that).

So to sum it up...  Lips had the core game and three add-ons that i acknowledge.  Did it have any DLC?  It may surprise you to learn that 379 songs are currently available download in North America.  So, Lips has (or had) about 499 total songs in the series available in North America.  Lips 80s (as i call it) was not released in the North American market, but all of the songs were released as DLC (i imported the 80s version from the UK).

Rumors of a Kinect enabled sequel surfaced when it was revealed that Microsoft purchased/registered the domain name KinectLips.com.  So, now i am waiting in anticipation for E3 to see if the series will get the sequel it deserves.  There really aren't that many games that appeal to me that i have seen slated for relase this year.  After all, it is my most played Xbox 360 game by far.

2 years and 4 months (actually probably 3) is kind of a long time for a game to go without a sequel.  At this point, i think it is either Kinect sequel or the series being done.  If the series was done, why register the domain though?   i leaning towards a 65-70% chance of a sequel, especially since Kinect primarily targets the more "casual" audience.  If there is a sequel, i would guess work started mid/late 2010.  i would expect it to launch in October or November.

Now that the history lesson is done, here are my experiences with the game...  i played it a lot, i liked it, i wish there would have been more awesome 80s pop.

To prove that i have actually played it, i offer up some disturbing pictures.  Yes, i have 2 accounts and these are both me.  The numbers in the first picture may seem off, but that is because of the way the stats from the first Lips carried over (i probably have more plays than this - i know there were at least 5,300).  i definitely have more challenge wins overall.  




i hope they release a Lips Kinect enabled version (with drastically reduced start-up times).  i know that the music game genre is in decline (or at least a slump) and profitability is fading.  i know i have a wishlist post on this blog somewhere.  Lips does have a lot of decent/good songs.  Unfortunately, they do not have enough (in my opinion).  i would prefer that the next game/sequel (if it exists) will have upwards of 1,000 songs.  Oh yeah, can i get some Breathe songs - please.