Thursday, January 27, 2011

Game Room: Predictions for 2/1/11

i have been playing around with stats as they relate to Game Room.  This is not necessarily what i would predict the leaderboards that will go up when i do my next stat check (probably February 1). 
However, now i decided to test the paranormalevolence of my Irr method.

Games that will go up a leaderboard level (unless they don't)
* Amidar - to 900
* Beamrider - to 500
* Cosmic Commuter - to 400
* Demons to Diamonds - to 800
* Dodge 'em - to 500
* Dolphin -  to 300
* Jungler- to 10,000
* Kaboom - to 900
* Millipede - to 8,000
* Rack 'em Up - to 4,000
* Scramble - to 9,000
* Space Armada - to 8,000
* Star Strike - to 100
* Submarine Commander - to 60
* Super Breakout - to 9,000
* Super Pro Decathalon - to 100
* Time Pilot - to 6,000
* Tower of Doom - to 700
* Tutankham - to 8,000
* Vectron - to 50
* Video Hustler - to 1,000
* Yar's Revenge - to 10,000

My Irr method has issues with game that had significant sales early (then likely dropped off drastically).  Some of these are: Yar's Revenge, Super Breakout, Space Armada, Scramble, Rack 'em Up, Millipede and Jungler.  There are 22 predicted increases - i wonder how many will actually occur.  Last week was the first time i tried this and got 2/21 right.  This prediction may become a weekly thing (if i'm really bored for a long period of time).  i think i might edit the results in on the bottom of the post.

Edit: so how did my predictions turn out...
* Amidar, Beamrider, Demons to Diamonds, Dolphin, Rack 'em Up, Scramble, Submarine Commander, Super Pro Decathalon, Time Pilot, Vectron and Video Hustler went up (not necessarily by 2/1/11).  So i will have be using a 1 month time horizon.  11 Games did not increase (so about 50%).  Of those that didn't increase, i was somewhat sure that 5 wouldn't increase.  Maybe the numbers have normalized a bit since then.

i will try and have my March leaderboard increase predictions up on or by March 1st (if i feel like doing them).

No comments:

Post a Comment